Few things make us happier than having certainty and clarity - it's just so nice when everything goes the way it’s supposed to.
When it comes to supply chain management, many wholesalers and distributors have little choice but to go on face value. If you’ve got a lot on your plate already and limited resources, it’s one less thing to think about when you can bank on an order being delivered when it’s meant to.
This article explores how you can strengthen your inventory strategy to handle the unpredictable—and even turn uncertainty into a competitive advantage.
The Illusion of Certainty in Supply Chains
It’s tempting to take supplier lead times at face value. After all, when a vendor says, “Delivery time is 4 weeks,” that simple statement brings a sense of order and lets you focus on other tasks.
And most of the time, that trust is justified.
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Shipping logistics are often efficient and highly systemized.
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Many seafarers operate with military-like discipline, with some even going months or years without shore leave.
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Over 5,000 cargo ships carry 90% of the world’s transported goods, fueling globalization and enabling modern business models.
However, the more we depend on global shipping, the more vulnerable we become when things go wrong.
When Disruption Strikes: Recent Examples
There are dozens of examples of supply chain disruption. A couple of them in particular won't have escaped your attention.
Notable Examples:
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Suez Canal Blockage: Caused an estimated $400 million per day in lost trade.
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COVID-19 Pandemic: Triggered global shortages, from essential goods to medical supplies.
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Missile Strike on Cargo Ship: A recent event that highlights how volatile ocean freight can be, yet the ship continued on its course.
These events are stark reminders that the supply chain is a high-risk component of your business, and customers bear the brunt of that risk when it fails, leading to stock-outs, missed revenue, and lost loyalty.
Proactive Inventory Planning: Your Best Defense
If you want to be known for reliability and consistent delivery, you'll need to look beyond the status quo of trusting supplier timelines. Here’s how.
1. Focus on Your Most Critical Inventory
Identify:
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Your fastest-moving products
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Your top revenue-generators
These items are the most painful to run out of during a disruption.
2. Adjust Your Forecast Period
Instead of relying strictly on supplier lead time, consider modifying your forecast window.
Example:
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Usual forecast: 60 days (matches supplier lead time)
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New forecast: 90 days (includes an extra 30 days of cushion)
This gives you a safety net in case of delays.
3. Increase Your Buffer Stock
At StockTrim, we suggest a service level of 95% for buffer stock, meaning:
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You’re covered in 95 out of 100 scenarios of unexpected demand.
Options for extra assurance:
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Raise buffer service levels to 96%, 97%, or 98%
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Be cautious—too much buffer stock can lead to excess inventory.
4. Account for Projected Growth
Planning to scale up? Include expected growth in your forecast by adding a percentage increase.
This ensures your inventory strategy grows with your business and mitigates the risks of scaling without preparation.
Don’t Let Disruption Leave You High and Dry
In the ever-shifting seas of global trade, relying purely on lead times is no longer enough. Supply chain disruptions are not just possibilities—they're eventualities.
By taking proactive steps with forecasting, buffer stock, and scenario planning, you can turn uncertainty into a strategic advantage.
Tools like StockTrim help you plan smarter, stay ahead of disruptions, and deliver consistently, so your customers don’t go elsewhere when others fall short. Trial our software for 14 days free.
